Referral Article

In addition, when asked, current employees would eve nonchalant answers such as â€Å"l will have to think about it, I don't know. † The general structure of such a program is that there is an associated monetary bonus for the employees who refer candidates for open positions. The monetary bonus would be received after the referred employee passed a 90 day probationary window. A number of companies will actually limit the monetary bonuses received for referrals for employs too particular number per year.For the companies that do to offer a monetary bonus for employee referrals, there is an offering of products or services to be redeemed, specifically products or services that are commonly used. In regards to employee-based referrals, it seems that the process should be more streamlined and has a more concrete structure. Offering monetary bonuses doesn't seem like the best idea as it could motivate the current employees to suggest any random individual, rather that a solid qual ified one.Instead of monetary bonuses, he companies should offer training to employees. For example a rare opportunity for a class that isn't normally offered, it would encourage the employee to better themselves and the company they work for. The employee referral program is also a significant way for companies to diminish large cost ways of finding employees, such as newspaper advertisement. The word of mouth idea is at it's finest by using the current employees to recruit new ones. That is a great way to cut cost and yet get the Job done in a timely manner.

Interpreting The History Of Volcanoes And Volcanic Rocks Essay

Drawing from the diagram, the volcanic history is as outlined below and other relevant details are also supplied. 1.0 Sequential summary of volcanic history the area a. Andersite porphyry: this is the oldest. Andersite indicates magma of intermediate composition. Its silica content is midway between felsic rocks (having high silica content) and mafic rocks (having low silica content). Its formation is a two-step process where slow cooling occurs at the initial stage within the crust forming large crystals as a result. However, the remaining magma moves further out and, as a result, cools to form a fine grained texture within which the earlier formed large crystals are embedded. This indicates a slow eruption. b. Turf grading into braccia: these are pyroclastic rocks formed by violent eruption of highly viscous magma. The tuff is finer than breccia but the two are of the same occurrence of formation. The magma forces its way out shattering the surrounding plastic rocks into ashes and block fragments. These consolidate to form tuff and breccia respectively and are likely to be felsic since high viscousity indicates a high silica content c. Dacite porphyry: this is of similar composition and formation style as andersite porphyry though it has higher silica content than andersite. d. Pumice Breccia: pumice is fine textured, filled with porous holes containing gases that were trapped within the forming magma at the onset of eruption. The gases later escapes to form a light, porous glassy rock. The breccia was likely to have resulted from the shattering of the rocks as the magma erupts out. Pumice is light colured which indicates a felsic composition (felsic rocks are lightly coloured than mafic rocks) e. Polymictic breccia: this indicates a mixture of breccia of varying silica content which indicates the onset of the formation of an interrupting basaltic formation which is to follow after. However, the mode of formation is still violent. f. Basalt with rough blacky top: this is a fine grained mafic rock. The rough top indicates that the forming magma was gently erupted and the viscosity low enough to cause the included gas to just escape leaving the bubble spaces at the top. g. Andersite: this has been seen as of intermediate silica composition. The absence of porphyritic material may indicate a less quiet eruption. h. Obsidian with pumice streak: the youngest rock; obsidian resembles pumice but without the bubble holes. The presence of pumice streak indicates violent eruption since some of the gases were trapped as a result of the violence. It is felsic. 2.0 Since the last eruption is about 19 years earlier (the age of the youngest layer), the volcano is still active. The earthquakes and the likes are likely pointers to another volcanic eruption. So evacuation is imminent. 3.0 This is an example of a composite or cinder-cone volcano. The seldom occurrence of pyroclastic materials and rocks of intermediate composition suggests this. These, in addition to the fact that the rocks are from highly viscous magma, also suggests that the volcano is located at a volcanic arc.

Celebrities in politics Essay

I will get straight to the point, I believe that when celebrities get involved in  politics they draw attention away from the actual political issues and campaigns at hand. Having film stars in politics for endorsements will definitely draw a crowds and more  importantly votes. Because people love and become inspired by the characters played by an individual and in the end they are in fact become blinded by who that individual really is. It is as if you give a dangerous person, or as I will refer to him as, â€Å"an evil dower† some candy. Now a politician by him self is an evil dower who does not have candy. Without the candy it is very hard for an evil dower to attract little children into a car but as soon a candy, or even better a child’s favorite candy is introduced, this when put into context being a favorite actor, that is all the child sees and is blinded to whomever posses the candy, thus getting into the car. This in essence is basically the reaction of an obsessed fan when celebrities become involved in politics. If you really want to dissect the purpose for celebrities in politics, or celebrity endorsements in general you are able to create six different categories, establishing credibility, attracting attention, associative benefits, psychographic connection, demographic connection and mass appeal. What does this all mean? Absolutely nothing! All the reasons why celebrities are brought into an election are reasons that should be irrelevant to the voters. Most celebrities have never actually done any social work, some of them are unaware of what’s going on, in the past some celebrities have actually debated the ideals of another individual that was in there own party without actually knowing it. Up to now I have only been referring to actors as being celebrities but if we look it up in the dictionary, a celebrity is simply a famous person, renown fame. Doesn’t that mean a politician could in fact also be a celebrity? Yes,  Julius Caesar, Napoleon Bonaparte, Abraham Lincoln ,where politicians and celebrities in there own respect and got there fame from battles they won, world changing events they where part of. The difference between them and a modern day actors is they became famous for the things they did, it was who they where not a mask. But on the contrary this could also work against a politition, for instance Bill Clinton, we don’t remember him for being the president who sent the most troops into war ever or getting the United States out of a 250 billion dollar debt, no, the first thing that comes to mind when you hear Bill Clinton is Monica Lewinski. I’m not saying he didn’t do a lot of good things for the county Im just saying that’s what he got the most publicity for. All this time wasted just because they wanted to know if he lied. This is how celebrity gets in the way of politics, instead of speculating about impeaching the president for getting a blow job they should have been using there resources to gather more intelligence about terrorist activity in the middle east. At this time the president was no longer a polition, he was a celebrity, another Paris Hilton, instead of a tape it was a dress. Let’s face it though, when it comes to celebrities and politics. Celebrities are simply more entertaining. Who would you rather see in an interview, Sonny Perdue (Governor or Georgia) or The Rock.

Business law help needed Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Business law help needed - Essay Example In a brief filed in Gene's suit against Hoyt in a federal court, Ilsa, Gene's attorney, cites, Jon v. Klint, an unpublished opinion. According to a ruling of the United States Supreme Court, the judge in Gene's suit Nevada enacts a law to regulate Internet prescription transactions. New York enacts a ban on the Internet sale of tobacco products to New York residents. Texas prohibits automakers from selling vehicles on their Web sites. State regulation of Internet activities The Federal Trade Commission is a government agency that issues rules, orders, and decisions. The Georgia state legislature enacts statutes. The Jackson County Board and the Peach City Council enacts ordinances. Administrative law includes The Montana Supreme Court decides the case of National Co. v. Overseas Corp. Of nine justices, six believe the judgment should be in National's favor. Justice Peel, one of the six, writes a separate opinion. The four justices who believe the judgment should be in Overseas's favor join in a third separate opinion. Hua, a resident of Illinois, owns a warehouse in Indiana. A dispute arises over the ownership of the warehouse with Jac, a resident of Kentucky. Jac files a suit against Hua in Indiana. Regarding this suit, Indiana has Alpha Company files a suit against Beta, Inc.

Meeting Customer Needs Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Meeting Customer Needs - Assignment Example To begin with, it is one among the top providers of the IP-based communication services. Secondly, they also provide the 4G LTE network. Thirdly, they are providers of the major wireless carriers within the United States and other neighbouring countries. Finally, the company further owns approximately thirty-four thousand Hot spots at popular joints, a notable example being in restaurants and hotels (Anon). A publication on Consumer Wireline Broadband Performance in the United States shows that, some internet providers did not deliver the speeds they had advertised. An example of the same is AT&T. Internet providers always use this strategy of promising more and giving less. This is always a way of outshining each other. From what AT&T had promised his clients it only delivered, a percentage slightly lower than 90. The report provided by Federal Communications Commission reveals that AT&T Corporation provide 87% of the advertised service packages (Commision, 2013). Currently, AT&T enjoys a wide range of customers, ranging from those using the AT&T high speed DSL internet, AT&T local phone service, AT&T long distance, wireless AT&T and the AT&T Digital Satellite TV. Customers can now be able to access VPN services. This is in order to secure communications with flexible private Networks providers. Also with through AT&T, several offices have been equipped with high-speed Ethernet network solutions, which can be implemented in different types of setups. AS from recent research, it has been found out that customer’s ideas play an important role in the development of new products. This is what is known as collaborative innovation (Anon). AT&T now for generations has provided quality services and products for their customer. The company’s mission now is to bring the world to the people. This vision is accomplished by the countless innovation that are seeded and delivered to the businesses and other customers in both

Philosophy Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words - 1

Philosophy - Essay Example Donald starts his argument by stating that the human race cannot only have one form of a conceptual scheme and that there are many people involved and different themes for the understanding of the notion. Donald states that religion still exists even in the monotheist people and thus showing an extended description of the conceptual scheme. He goes ahead to state that one idea can be very important in that it can assist in the development of greater ideas that would eventually lead to the rise of new concepts in the field of philosophy (Ludwig 18). David goes ahead to offer the example of the relativity theory as a product of this. In describing the theory, there is the explanation that the theory is an improved version of two different theories made by an early philosopher. The theory is a product of the theory of general relativity and special relativity. This brings about the contemporary version of the theory and thus diversifying the philosophical field of view. Further explanat ion of the concept of conceptual relativity leads to David explaining that there is always an underlying notion of confusion. This from the fact that a theme or a philosophical subject to receive acclamation as a part of a conceptual scheme, from conjoined ideas, there must exist some sort of connection prior to the combination that would show a later source of fusion in explanation. This factor has led to many rules being shunned with the statement that they do not bear the required factors for them to be schemes. David offers an analysis and example in explaining this. This is where he states that the schemes may have diverging viewpoints and thus leading to a difference in language. However, when people with different languages share similar sentiments among other factors that may show their link, they are then termed as having a conceptual scheme. However, he argues that language diversity may offer some sort of misunderstanding in terms of the fact it can bring about vague real ity. Vague reality is the form of illusion that makes the brain misunderstand or incorporate ideas in a manner that it should not. This is due to increased views from a particular language specifically brought about by different backgrounds. This in its sole entity hinders the concept of reality (Davidson 8). The ability to translate a particular language is one major factor that comes into focus when identifying whether conceptual schemes can gain diversity or it is a monotonous concept. The questioning of whether a person with completely different languages that cannot be translated between them lying in a similar manner or to a common language is a major one. The explanation offered for this is diverse among different philosophers but the conclusion made by David that it all falls down to two major notions. The first notion in relation to this theme and problem is understanding whether the lack of translation is complete. In terms of an incomplete translation, the understanding i s that only a few words in a given sentence cannot be understood while the rest of them are clearly grasped by a member of a different language group. This, David states, gains recognition as a diversified factor in terms of conceptual schemes. However, the second notion implies that if a certain language is completely misunderstood and that the member of the

The power of Sovereignty Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

The power of Sovereignty - Research Paper Example Inequalities in the exercise of power and disregard to justice are even more evidenced in the political scene in various regions around the world today. Such always stem from the need to advance once own course by ignoring and disregarding other people who they consider rather inadequate. Stigall, Blacksley and Jenks argue that an interesting scene is always created where people especially the government authorities always insist on maintaining their rights while at the same time violating and stepping on the rights of their own subjects. (Stigall, Blacksley and Jenks, 2009). This is a common occurrence experienced with most of the sovereignties around the globe today. The aspect of exercising single handed rule on the subject population is mostly experienced in dictatorial countries such as Syria, Egypt, Iraq, alongside other Arab countries famous for dictatorial cases. This is contrary to what Hobbes refers to in his social contract theory, leaving the state of nature and looking a t the advancement of one’s own course at the expense of the others in the territory (subjects). According to the social contract theory, it is those in higher social ranks who seem to deserve their rights while those of the lower social ranking are often considered incapable of demanding for any form of rights. As a result of this, their rights are always abused in a bid to preserve those of the power in the society. This paper will look at the effects of electing a sovereign with regard to the protection of state rights and the protection of the people under this rule with reference to the Arab countries and democracy in these regions. Hobbes proposes in his theory that the election of a sovereign in any state always results in the creation of the state of nature in the regions under the control of the sovereign (Saul, 2008). This theory, I think does not hold enough water in as much as I know and believe given the many atrocities which have been experienced in many of the A rab countries such as Syria and Egypt in the recent past. Having the sovereigns in these states has done nothing much other than inflicting a lot of troubles and augmenting the rise in cases of inequalities in these states. These happen as the sovereigns strive to uphold their own rights at the expense of the other citizens. Many people have succumbed to death in these countries as they try to protest to regain their rights. The question in this case therefore is whether this is what Hobbes refers to as the creation of a state of nature. The state of nature according to my understanding with regard to the social and political contexts is when the ruling authority strikes a balance with the citizens under her rule to allow the participation and full regard of the subjects in state affairs. It is far from having the central government designing and deciding on every aspect of leadership. The contrary is however the truth in most of the sovereign ruling systems as in the cases of Syria and Egypt we have mentioned above. Brown and Hamzawy note that â€Å"The tragic developments in Lebanon and Palestine- all with weak or failed state institutions- have enable Arab democracy pessimists dismiss easily any talk about positive political reforms as the fantasy of the western well- intentioned humanists- or misguided ideologues- who do not understand the real

What is the role of the British Museum in the history of modern Essay

What is the role of the British Museum in the history of modern sculpture in Britain - Essay Example Its collection of great art and antiquities has been collected from around the globe and is an excellent portrayal of all the continents. This collection documents and illustrates in great detail the story of human culture from the very beginning till the present day, encompassing 2 million years of human history (British Museum, n.d.). The British Museum’s establishment was based on the belief that a collection based on human history should be accessible to the general public for free. Another idea behind the Museum was that the different human cultures can understand each other through mutual engagement regardless of any differences between them. The purpose behind the Museum was to have a place where human cross-cultural investigation could take place (British Museum, n.d.). ... The main topic that Moore worked on included fallen warriors, the mother-and-child and family groups as well as most the reclining human figure (Mark Barrow Fine Art, 2005). After much criticism of his early work, Henry Moore finally received the International Prize for Sculpture which helped his worldwide reputation to increase and grow. Moore also became well known for his sketches which depicted people of London sheltering underground during the Second World War. His sketches of working miners also gained a lot of popularity (Mark Barrow Fine Art, 2005). It was in 1921, when Henry Moore was attending the Royal College of Art in London, that the young artist began visiting the British Museum (Phelan, 2001). In his own words ‘the Museum was a revelation to me. I went at least twice a week for two or three hours and one room or another caught my enthusiasm. The wonderful thing about the British Museum is that everything is stretched out before you and you are free to make your own discoveries’ (Finn, 1981) Moore worked his way through the different many departments of the British Museum. The galleries housing the Antiquities of Africa, Asia, Egypt, Greece, Prehistoric and Roman-Britain, Rome and the Orient were a great favorite of the artist. In the time of Moore, the Ethnographic Galleries which housed the artifacts of Oceania was also located within the British Museum (Phelan, 2001). As an aspirant modernist sculptor, Moore had always been a fan of Roger Fry's ‘Vision and Design,, a collection of essays. This book is considered the most prominent and significant work of art criticism that was written in England

An Unstoppable Convergence Coursework Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

An Unstoppable Convergence - Coursework Example This fact has formed, as Ralf Nader puts it, a kind of â€Å"duopoly† in American political life. Yet the point is that when one party loose, another party takes benefits from that. Along with the winner ideas and interests of this party are established on the highest level. And whoever comes to power, the result is always the same – â€Å"a corporate statist†, because one ideology can only win by restraining another. But that’s not how things naturally should go in the society. Nader says in Introduction, he had noticed that an ideology doesn’t matter in people’s everyday life. When he was young and helped with the local restaurant his father owned in Winsted, Connecticut and also, when Ralf Nader was hitchhiking, he noticed that people did not organize themselves according to their political views, but they have gathered together a common interest and common current thing they need to do. Therefore Nader stresses on the idea that ideologica l confrontation disappears when there’s a clear understanding what thing is the right thing to do. Behind an ideological explanation of the problem, there's always a common issue which can be found and shared by different parties adherents. In U.S. history there are a lot of examples of such cooperation, or â€Å"a convergence† as Ralf Nader puts it. That means it’s not only an interpersonal relationships’ characteristic. In 1982 a coalition against The Breeder Reactor Project in Tennessee was formed.

Aluminium Foil ((Corporate Social Responsibility)) & Environmental Assignment

Aluminium Foil ((Corporate Social Responsibility)) & Environmental Impact - Assignment Example The availability of this element is so high that a there is very little chance of demand ever surpassing supply. Producing aluminum is a process that needs a lot of energy; in fact, the commercial growth of this metal in the late nineteenth century was predominantly as a result of the development and accessibility of inexpensive and ample hydroelectric power that has remained the key source of energy for the sector. Energy that is used in the production of aluminum is trapped in the metal, thus if aluminum is re-melted in order to make it new metal, only five percent of the energy that was used initially is needed as ninety five percent of the initial investment in energy will remain in the metal. Since the production of aluminum started, used aluminum has remained a significant source of new metal and based on the industry estimates, almost seventy percent of the aluminum in use will be recycled eventually as it is less costly compared extraction of the metal from its ore. Depending on the previous use of aluminum, the life cycle of aluminum products varies significantly. When aluminum is used in packaging in the form of a foil, it might have a life cycle of approximately a few weeks but when it is utilized as a cladding material in buildings, its life cycle may be approximately a century or even longer. This implies that aluminum has a positive profile in regards to its abundant availability, durability as well as tendency to be recycled at very low costs in terms of energy (Green, 2007, p. 125). Therefore, aluminum foil can make a significant positive contribution towards the conservation of other resources in the environment. Aluminum foil is produced from an alloy of aluminum that contains between ninety-two and ninety nine percent of aluminum, and come in numerous widths and strengths since they can be applied to thousands of applications. Aluminum foil used for manufacturing thermal insulations in the construction

PV system Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

PV system - Assignment Example h. power storage: solar power can be put away in solar batteries and warm thermal solar frameworks for warming homes. At the point when there is light, the panels charge the batteries. Amid the night and climate conditions without the sun, the batteries are utilized to power the lightings (Conservative critic). (a) It is the design that expands the gathering of vitality from solar sources from a vast territory. It is attained by concentrating solar radiation from a vast region into a PV cell. It fundamentally lessens on the measure of the silicon wafer that is put into the generation of power. (b) Concentrating beams from the light is best accomplished by utilizing mirrors and lenses a procedure termed as optical force. Then again, a glass window built with luminescent substances in a methodology called luminescent concentration. (C) By guaranteeing that a lot of light from an unfathomable zone falls on a little PV cell, less measure of silicon is required to create and deliver high measures of energy subsequently lessening generation cost. For the luminescent concentration, the sheet of luminescent substance reradiates light, which wind up inside the glass. The reflection brought on falls on the PV cells to create power. The setup obliges that silicon wafer is just made utilization of on the edges. Productivity is a component considered from over edge as it prompts expanded proficiency (Ferowich). Ferowich, Grant. Solar Power: Cost and Reliability Make It the Perfect Energy Source. 31 MAY 2013. 4 OCT 2014

Tourism in Antarctica Essay Example for Free

Tourism in Antarctica Essay Oil spills, although reasonably infrequent, are major threats to nearby wildlife. Increased tourism is also bringing about the invasion of alien species and spores into Antarctica, and although species such as the Mediterranean mussel will not be able to thrive on the ice shelf due to the temperatures, they can prove to be a threat to the marine wildlife when growing on ship hulls. Most tourists to Antarctica have flown to southern areas such as Punta Arenas in Chile or New Zealand. The pollution created by these long-distance flights is considerable and contributes to global warming. In addition to this, as global warming melts away floating ice sheets on the water, there will be space for larger ships to arrive, resulting in more tourists, and an increase in the issues aforementioned. Furthermore, there are the issues which are prevalent in all tourist destinations, such as litter, sewage, and overcrowding. What is being done to minimise the impact of tourism? All 100+ tour operators in Antarctica are members of IAATO (International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators), which urges tour operators to be environmentally-friendly, and to urge their clients to also do so. Tourism is very much legal and acceptable in Antarctica, and it is only the scale of this which needs to be controlled. SSSIs (Sites of Special Scientific Interest), such as Bird Island on South Georgia are laid out beforehand, and tourists are not allowed to visit these, in order to preserve wildlife and certain habitats. In order to partake in any activities on the island, a permit is required, so that this can be regulated. Ships landing in Antarctica cannot be carrying more than 500 people, with only 100 being allowed to disembark at once and ships carrying heavy fuel oil (normally large passenger ships) are not allowed to enter Antarctic waters. The number of cruise vessels at any one site in the Antarctic has been limited to 40, and only one ship is allowed to land at each site at once. In addition to this, no waste or litter is to be left at the tourist sites, tourists are not allowed to walk on the lichens or moss and no tourist is allowed to go within 5 metres of an animal. All tour guides are officially trained and are experienced scientific personnel who have been involved in research in Antarctica. Waste disposal is tightly regulated, with prohibitions of the dumping of waste anywhere in the Antarctic continent, with ships now having purpose-built waste containment facilities. This shows how sustainable tourism in Antarctica is a high priority, and how there are many measures taken to minimise the negative impacts of tourism. Although these measures are effective now, it is unknown whether they will stay in place in the future, and if Antarctica will retain its title as the ‘World’s last true wilderness’ for much longer.

Human Social Welfare

Human Social Welfare Human Societies in general comprises different social classes with inhabitants ranging from privileged to under-privileged. There exist a number of philosophies to cater social needs of different establishments and in accordance with them people select their methodologies, policies and overall strategies History of Social Welfare and Social Work A program initiated with a vision to provide assistance, support, limited income and services that can benefit the needy in a society can be defined as undertaken for the social welfare. Societies face numerous problems especially the low-income families and those which have no income at all, social work involves analysis of practices suggested by social scientists, conducting research to understand the areas causing problems, evaluating solutions and devising strategies to improve the life of those suffering with poverty or injustice. Social work is aimed at proving social welfare as its focused at positively affecting human living conditions, life style, health, education, food ammunitions. Any government or non-governmental organization can start serving humanity with their social work aimed at the welfare of the people in their community. Providing each individual with quality education, every patient with proper medical facilities, goods and services at affordable prices, shelte r to tragedy striven, employment opportunities and assistance to old citizens are the services social welfare organizations usually provide to the humanity. According to the residual concept of social welfare an individual who has left with no other means of help from his family, work or any where else and has a cause to defend his need would be considered for the sustenance provided by the state. Welfare provision is often seen as being for the poor. This was the dominant model in English-speaking countries; the English Poor Law (1598-1948) was exported to many other countries. This has been taken as the model of a residual system of welfare, in which welfare is a safety net, confined to those who are unable to manage otherwise. (Spiker, 1995) In the light of institutional concept of social welfare state tries its best to protect people from the cost they would have to incur for their survival in an industrialized capitalist market, here the cause of need is not the driver but the need itself is. In this system every social class can be benefited. This concept serves the entire public by establishing development authorities, educational institutions, hospitals, military and law enforcement. UK and Sweden practice Institutional concept of welfare for its state. There is a concept of liberalism in United States that emphasizes on individual liberty strictly denying restrictions imposed by state, religion or social structures. This liberalism has three classes, classic, social and neo liberalism. Classic liberalism emphasizes strongly over individual liberty and minimum hold of state. The philosophy here supports individual rights of property, free trade, and the decision one makes out of his rational mind-set. Social liberalism has an added economic and social aspect of politics. It highlights the need for the whole society to preserve individuals right of liberty. Its usually been applied in mixed economies and with government providing services to private enterprises conducting their business and consumer services. Its philosophers consider lack of basic human needs like education, health and employment triggers the threat to individual as well as social liberty. Neoliberalism suggests economic liberty as the foundation of economic develop ment for any nation. Income taxes, individuals right of property, deregulation, trade liberalization etc are the pre-requisites of neoliberalism. Conservative philosophers believe in the rule of law over liberty and individual rights. They consider implication of law mandatory on the economic, political and social ideology of people. Classical conservatism prioritize legacy of laws over individuals speculated rational decisions. It has tradition and religion codes focused at the perseverance of both. In fiscal conservatism there is a limit to all the taxes, government intervention and budgetary laws. Social conservatism is centered at preserving social norms and cultural values. Judeo Christian system has a concept of sharing value system common to both the religion. The Jew considers Christians as adopters of some of the values from their faith. The concept of merging belief system could also serve humanitarian values as it increases the tolerance for people belonging to different religion, creating acceptability among communities and bring peace. American system is Judeo Christian with the history that founders of the nati on were more of the believers of being heirs to the Old Testament, the Hebrew Bible and the belief in liberty. This sense of mission is why more Americans have died for the liberty of others than any other nations soldiers. It is why those who today most identify with the Judeo-Christian essence of America are more likely to believe in the moral worthiness of dying to liberate countries not only Europe, but Korea, Vietnam and Iraq. That is why America stands alone in protecting two little countries threatened with extinction, Israel and Taiwan. (Prager, 2004, p.5764) The concept is extending to introduce Judeo Christian- Muslim. Even Islamic teachings concentrates on spreading peace on earth rather then promoting terrorism which is the exploitation of the essence of the religion by those who are the enemies of world peace and stability. The Poor Laws in England identified poor as belonging to three groups, those who cant work at all, those who cant find work and those who were not willing to work. A poor relief fund was created and workhouses for able-poor while the idle ones were punished. Elizabeth Poor law of 1601 formularized the relief process by creating a collectivist national system made by imposing taxes and provided services to poor. The deserving poor were provided with food, money and even clothing. Those who needed work were placed at workhouses and were even given places to live while those that were not willing to work were sent to houses of correction. A parish was responsible for identifying and providing sustenance to its poor. The alms provided outside the workhouse were called outdoor relief. Some economists consider American Poor Law comparable to English poor Law reform of 1834. According to a critic Stephen Pimpare Visiting Assistant Professor Department of Political Science Hunter College CUNY: During these periods of profound economic transformation, they used similar arguments to make ending or restricting relief an act of compassion, not cruelty, thus giving political viability and moral legitimacy to their self-serving cause. Such propaganda was disseminated through similar kinds of well-funded and well-connected organizations of â€Å"experts,† which functioned as mediating institutions, linking their funders, the media, and the political system; those funders remained behind the scenes during these battles, achieving their goals by dressing their economic campaigns in moral rhetoric. (Pimpare, 2003) Protestant ethics is being considered as an evolutionary force behind capitalism. Unlike other religion it encouraged the followers to pursue economic growth. Under this view Economic gain was focused, activities for the pursuit of worldly benefits was encouraged and given positive meaning. Some critics condemn such behavior of protestant preachers as being aimed at saving their position by establishing opportunities like material growth appreciable in religion. Laissez-Faire introduces an economic concept which rejects the intervention by the government in the form of taxes and other charges that are above then the one required to carry the specified services like individual rights, peace and security government is supposed to provide. It stresses the need of individual rights, personal freedom and free market. States unnecessary regulation and protection skims the profits and leave business world dissatisfied. Reference: Pimpare, S. (2003, Aug) The Poor Law Strikes Home?  Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia Marriott Hotel, Philadelphia, PA Online Retrieved 2008-02-24 from http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p62621_index.html Prager, D. (2004) â€Å"What does Judeo-Christian mean?†. Jewish World View 8 Nissan, 5764, Retrieved 2008-03-04 from http://focusonjerusalem.com/whatdoesjudeo-christianmean.html Spiker, P. (1995) â€Å"Social Policy and Administration†. Social policy: themes and Approaches, Retrieved 2008-03-04 from http://www2.rgu.ac.uk/publicpolicy/introduction/socpolf.htm

Ryanair and GE Total Quality Management (TQM)

Ryanair and GE Total Quality Management (TQM) Quality Management : History and Purpose All businesses are concerned with quality, usually because they have come to understand that high quality can give a significant competitive advantage.[2] Good quality products and services reduce the costs of rework, waste, complaints and returns and, most importantly, generate satisfied customers. [1] It is noticed that quality is considered as one of the most important factor as a competitive tool. Total Quality Management (TQM) that became popular with all types of business in the late 1970s and 1980s has its roots in earlier work by several management thinkers. Feigenbaum popularized the term total quality management in 1957. After that it was developed through the work of several quality gurus including Deming, Juran, Ishikawa, Taguchi and Crosby. TQM can be viewed as a logical extension of the way in which quality-related practice has progressed. [2] Originally quality was achieved by inspection screening out defects before customers noticed them. Then the quality control (QC) concept developed a more systematic approach to not only detecting but also solving quality problems. Quality assurance (QA) widened the responsibility for quality to include functions other than direct operations, such as Human Resources, Accounting and Marketing[2]. Quality management has also made increasing use of advanced statistical quality techniques since 1980s through Six Sigma process input-output improvement to deliver quality. Some organisations such as Ryanair, Toyota etc. suggests and favour TQM as an outstanding turn around strategy where as some organisations such as GE, GM, Honeywell etc. has attained success through laying down Six Sigma in all its functional chains and processes and they firmly believe and live Six Sigma. Executive Summary This report follows my conclusions and understanding from readings and abstract from various reliable sources mentioned in the headers, footers and the dedicated referencing part of the report. The report introduces us to the quality approaches followed by Ryanair and GE who are from different industry having different orientations. The report also suggests why Ryanair has tag on TQM and how innovations, changes in business environment and competitiveness  are affected and later it is critically discussed that improvement is necessary in Ryanairs quality management to compete. Since the fashionable peak of TQM and Six Sigma, in general there has been some decline in its status, yet, many of its ideas included in this report, have become accepted quality practice. [2] Reflection in the Report: My perception before I started my studies and research into this subject matter, the Quality, was that the quality is found only in the expensive and branded products and that the Quality Control is the out put focused single method of quality management. My tutor, Mr. Sotunde, the guide to Operations and Process Management by Slack N. and co authors, various readings from Quality and Business magazines have clarified me the concept of quality and how it can be managed effectively. Firstly, I learnt that the quality is a value in product and/or service and it can be established by the customers expectations that are to be matched with the actual product and/or service. Secondly, quality cannot be measured with price alone as price is the major factor of companies strategy to exploit or to compete in the market and it is the financial factor to affect the profitability. But, quality can be found in low price products or services as well such as in Value for Money goods and services or it is found as a value that a company can deliver in its product or services for a justifiable price. I learnt that the quality function is not limited to the out put but it can be practised through out the organisation in to all its processes to produce or provide goods and services of the consistent quality as per the expectations of the customers. As it has to be practised universally it is the responsibility of all and the value of the quality should be understood and  communicated within and outside the organisation for example to the suppliers and distributors. Additionally, there are varieties of approaches to the Quality that are practised by different organisations. Though having similar functions, organisations in the same industry or in direct competition, it is seen that two different organisations follow different quality management approach and both are successful in terms of the quality goods and services it produce or provide. Establishing quality standards and following/meeting them sincerely is not enough for the organisations to stay longer on the edge because they could be copied or imitated by our competitors or new entrants or customers quality expectation might change. So, it is very much essential for organisations that they make every effort to improve their quality aspect. I have also learnt that the quality approach developed within the organisation such as TQM by Toyota and formalised Six Sigma by Motorola are difficult to be copied exactly overnight and if concepts adopted completely than too one cant beat them in their own game because they are constantly improving their functions and process to excel the customers perceptions, keeping them always a step ahead. It is also seen that quality standards are formalised by organisations such as ISO and ISI and organisations help each other by affiliations such as EFQM to improve the quality aspects in production or provision of goods and services. RYANAIR:[3] Ryanair, currently, Europes original and still largest low-fare, no frills airline with workforce of over 5,000 employees, around fleet of 250 aircrafts including new Boeing 737-800 aircrafts provide services to around 12m passengers every year to over 1,100 low-fare routes across 26 European countries. According to the CEO, Michael O Leary, Our customer service is about the most well defined in the world. We guarantee to give you the lowest air fare. You get a safe flight. You get a normally on-time flight. Thats the package. We dont, and wont, give you anything more. Are we going to say sorry for our lack of customer service? Absolutely not. If a plane is cancelled, will we put you up in a hotel overnight? Absolutely not. If a plane is delayed, will we give you a voucher for a restaurant? Absolutely not. [The other key information about Ryanair Ltd., please refer to Appendix 1] GE: [9] GE is a diversified infrastructure, finance and media company taking on the worlds toughest challenges. From aircraft engines and power generation to financial services, medical imaging, and television programming, GE operates in more than 100 countries and employs more than 300,000 people worldwide. Their businesses fuel the global economy and improve peoples lives. Their global research team with more than 2,500 researchers working towards the next breakthrough, GE is positioned to continually innovate, invent and reinvent. General Electric (GE) says that its commitment to quality is based on the ideas of globalization and instant access to information, and products and services that continue to change the way its customers conduct business. Their quality mission statement reads, in part, Todays competitive environment leaves no room for error. We must meet our customers needs and relentlessly look for new ways to exceed their expectations. Ryanair v/s GE Quality Philosophy and approach: For both Ryanair and GE, quality means the consistent conformance to customers expectations by laying down the concepts of service quality, process management, quality assertion and quality perfection, but, their approach to quality management is quite different. Ryanair and TQM: Ryanair offers value for money, point-to-point air travel and aims nothing close to luxurious service. Quality provision at Ryanair is intended from their point of view giving adequate consideration to the expectations and perceptions of their targeted segment for the fare it is offering and it is seen that Ryanair is delivering these expectations by its on time journeys, passenger and baggage safety, good appearance and attitude of crews, the way it meets the industry challenges and resolves the service failures. Since 1997, it has adopted and living the total quality management to deliver its quality objectives through its Lowest Fares and Passenger Service Charter. [6] The up to date highlights (non-exhaustive, for complete list please follow Appendix 1) from this charter stating their significant commitments are: To offer the lowest fares at all time on all routes. To notify passengers of known delays, cancellations and diversions. To allow reservation changes. To respond quickly to passenger complaints and provide prompt refunds. To take measures to speed up check-in. The success and growth that Ryanair is currently enjoying is due to providing the best value for money service as right first time in all its functions from booking the ticket to the baggage handling. It is universally understood within the organisation that little extra effort will bring big results and these efforts do not require a huge investment in training. The Ryanair control its functions and processes through its industry benchmarking and setting its own internal quality standards. It uses Servicemail and other performance statistics to evaluate their position in their highly competitive aviation industry. GE and Six Sigma: Most of the GE business segments are involved in large scale manufacturing activities at a greater extent. In 1988 with a program called Work-Out, GE started focusing on quality issues that has helped them to open its corporate culture to established ideas from any quarter regarding quality management that later created an environment that eventually led to Six Sigma. Work-Out was used to identify and eliminate unneeded processes and tasks by development teams from multiple departments to find a solution to a problem. Now, Six Sigma is embedding quality thinking into every level of operation around the globe. These uses statistical tools and systems to monitor and control processes and functions to have outputs close to zero defects. The three key elements that GE focuses to their quality initiatives are customers, processes and employees. Everything the company does in its quest for world-class quality focuses on these three essential elements. Customers are at the centre of GE universe and they define quality by their expectations of performance, reliability and other factors. To attain the level of quality that their customers require, GE conducts what it calls Outside-In Thinking. Outside-In Thinking calls on GE to look at its business from its customers perspective. By understanding the transaction lifecycle from the customers needs and processes, we can discover what they are seeing and feeling. With this knowledge, we can identify areas where we can add significant value or improvement from their perspective, GEs quality statement reads. The employees are a key to the quality approach and at GE, quality is embedded as the responsibility of every employee. Keeping this in mind, all GE employees are provided training in the strategy, statistical tools and techniques of Six Sigma Quality. Variety of training courses are offered at different levels including basic awareness to Six Sigma; basic tool introduction to equip employees to participate on Six Sigma teams; Master Black Belt, Black Belt and Green Belt Training for leader managers; and Design for Six Sigma training. Summing-up: Both, Ryanair and GE are trying to deliver exceeding quality products and services to both their internal and external customers, clearly understanding that quality is a consistent versatile activity having both quantitative and non-quantitative attributes such as re-visiting customer? Yes/No. They have emphasised and communicated throughout the organisation that quality is the responsibility of every individual and through these responsibility they ensures that all processes, inputs and outputs, maintain and produce consistent confirmative level of quality products and services. Is TQM really good for Ryanair? Ryanairs business strategy is based upon the product orientation for its air travel and quality strategy as the customer orientation. Ryanair is constantly trying to keep its costs as low as possible to transfer benefits of cost savings to its passenger in the form of low fares. The common misconception is that the quality comes for price. Critically, it can be argued that quality can be delivered for the low price service as well, rather again to say simply, Quality in Price. In these past 25 years, Ryanair has well balanced the expectations and perceptions by introducing revolutionary and innovative ways of providing low fare air travel. Keeping its target market in centre, they have defined and communicated the quality of their services in their own terms. Ryanairs customers know what they will get and their job is to deliver these expectations at its best by managing each and every, direct and indirect processes that are related to the passengers which are later judged by passengers experience. Ryanairs approach to its quality management as different from other successful organisations such as GE has serious implications on its innovations, changing business environment and competition. Innovations in Ryanair: Putting an innovative thought into quick action is the core competence of Ryanair. Most of the Ryanair innovative ideas have brought the revolution in the way people perceived travelling by air. For many successful companies such as GE, innovations has cost them fortune and these costs were recovered from customers in the higher prices, but, for Ryanair innovations were implementing a simple ideas bringing additional revenues that in turn benefiting customers in lowest price tickets. Firstly, with its turn around strategy of mid 1990s, Ryanair, apart from no frills has introduced no class, single model air crafts. These fleets of hundreds of aircrafts were ordered often and bought at a heavy discount. The overhead cost of training and cleaning were brought down to nominal because of these standardised aircrafts. The focus and resources were diverted to introduce new routes, increasing customer base and harnessing quality factors in its provision of services. From 2000 and onwards it started using the e-commerce tools and websites for online booking, check-in and informing customers about the special offers on its tickets. Ryanair was first to advertise third parties advertisement on its boarding pass and flights. The customer service were improved by introduction of web application, Bing, that updates air fares directly to its customers computer and by implementing a Servicemail, a point of contact and response for customers. Servicemail is then extended to collect data regarding customer choices, preferences, trend analysis and measuring KPIs. In future: The fare charged by Ryanair reflects the price of travelling from point A to B. It offers other ancillary services such as in flight meals, drinks, baggage costs etc. at a charge for those who want it. The lasting visionary CEO, OLeary has a vision that in coming years travel by Ryanair will be free and all its revenue will be streamed by providing ancillary services, third party advertisements, holidays, insurance, hotels and connections bookings sold through Ryanair website. Change: TQM approach adopted by Ryanair is a flexible approach to a change in external circumstances as it has to just focus do new thing at its best but at lower cost. Customers: Ryanair is a focused cost leader and open to customer fatigue so it has to understand that in the long run it has to move along with the taste of the customer that might be affected by pressure groups, regulators, EU and other regional governments. Currently, Ryanair is managed by an aggressive approach to capture market and in future it might require strategic rethinking, but, its approach to quality can stay the same to entice and satisfy passengers. [Please refer to Number 1 Customer Services Statistics in the Appendix 4][8] Suppliers: The advantage to Ryanair is that within UK and Europe, each major region of the countries has more than one airport, which can accommodate Ryanair at competitive rates on landing and handling fees, leaving Ryanair with the upper hand. The traffic at these secondary airports is low increasing the quality level of airport handling services and on-time departures enjoyed by the passengers. The other suppliers are caterers, maintenance and repair contractors. It is natural that Ryanair must be managing its suppliers relationship through service level agreements with a backed hefty compensation for the breach of service term(s). EU and Local Governments: The growth of the Ryanair rooted due to EUs deregulation of the aviation industry. EU court decision can negatively impact upon the way Ryanair is functioning. For instance, Ryanair was forced to refund against its non-refund policy for flight cancellations due to Icelandic volcanic eruptions and was charged 3m Euros by Italian Government for not helping passengers after its flight cancellations. To stay in business and avoid fines Ryanair has to comply with such unavoidable regulations but it could not impair its quality approach as others too have to comply. Quality and Competitiveness: Of course, quality products and services are the competitive advantage and Ryanair keenly has laid down this aspect into it air flights and routes. The key to success of Ryanair is implementing different marketing strategies over a period of time to survive the cut throat competition in the aviation industry. Ryanair is recognised as the most punctual flight from Dublin to London and Ryanair is top rated against its close competitors such as EasyJet, Virgin and British Airways. People made it possible statement is true for Ryanair because the success of Ryanair is behind its crew members as they are in the direct contact with the passengers. Ryanair has not spent much on the training but is paying modestly to its crew and this has encouraged them to behave as pleasantly as possible on the flights. There are concerns raised from some unsatisfied customers and dissident that the ancillary services provided by Ryanair are priced high and are of poor quality. Ryanair should deal with this issue as early as possible as the success of total quality management lies upon delivering quality in all aspects of its activities. Despite all cutting corners to save on ticket prices, more and more people are flying Ryanair, which, in the end, might be the ultimate validation of OLearys assessment of what travellers really want and how Ryanair is delivering it. [Please refer to the Appendix 3: The Customer Feedbacks][7] However, TQM is not the end in itself. Ryanair should continuously strive upon improving its quality standards that can help them to further reduce costs, increase revenues, reduce risks and improve the way it helps handle complaints and dissatisfied passengers. Improving Quality in Ryanair The ultimate aim of operations and process management is the performance improvement and Ryanair should consider this as an ultimate objective to improve its quality objectives of on time flights, speed, ancillary services and dependability. Despite of all efforts to manage its quality, Ryanair is seen and blamed that it sacrifices the quality in pursuit of minimising costs and that it fails to align the interests of its passengers well. These issues could be addressed by setting the minimum performance standards and outperforming them, as well said, promise little and deliver above expectations. One way Ryanair could win its goal to become worlds biggest and cheapest airliner is by aligning all its functions within the organisations to commit to quality levels and agreeing the quality deliverables with its contractors. Kaizen aka Continuous Improvement if adopted could blend well with the current TQM approach followed by Ryanair, however, this could affect the innovations, change an d current competitive position in a favourable manner. Kaizen involves focus on small but never ending improvements that will become part of normal culture for all operations. Innovations: We are aware that since 1997 Ryanairs passenger base is growing at a tremendous 20% average every year and it still has an appetite for growth and market to expand. It has become increasingly important that Ryanair addresses the improvement issue in its quality management to satisfy this increased demand, number of new routes, destinations and growth prospects with Kaizen. Ryanair could extend or assign the responsibility towards quality improvement to the regional processes owners affecting passengers quality perception. These processes owners would identify the performance gaps and recommend actions to fulfil them by innovative actions or contribute ideas for further analysis. A close contact is required with the crew members who will bring them the stories or experience they had with customers and how they overcame the demands or problems of different customers. We have Servicemail as a point of customer contacts and correspondences, but, we may need a system for internal communications that could be called a Central Information System (CIS). Through CIS every crew teams, employees and contractors as a lean system, directly submit key ideas, stories, experience to their respective process owner, who in turn filter the messages and re-post it that shall be compulsorily viewed, shared, commented and recommended upon by all regional process owners for further analysis that may involve the PDCA cycle or DMAIC cycle approach. This simple CIS should not cost much as it could be readily available or produced upon demand by the tendering process. Assuming that majority of them are computer literate and CIS very user friendly will require bare minimum costs for informing or training. The most contributing team or processes should be measured with process excellence index aka EPI and rewarded on quarterly basis. The other direct and simple approach for improvement is to circulate a postcard size blank form on flight with two columns to list down by passengers good about and dissatisfied about travelling with Ryanair. The employees should be encouraged to identify and forward negative feedbacks only using CIS with a confidence and surety that they will not be judged in any case against negative feedbacks and that the forms will be used for general improvement of quality standards as a whole. Change and Competitiveness: The improved quality means increased revenue and profits due to increased turnover. The Kaizen approach in low cost EU and UK Airline service segment will identify, distinguish and advantage Ryanair from its competitors. If, Ryanair act now and fully implement Kaizen by December 2011 then they could become a cost-cum-service leader, a fully innovative airliner, with the cheapest fares simply covering quality cost of travel and chargeable ancillary quality efficient services with a minimum premium for those who want them. This development will help Ryanair to become a worlds popular brand and will advantage Ryanair in 2012 when the number of international passengers will increase more than double due to London Olympics. In many instances Ryanair was criticised by the regulators and competitors for not giving any or enough quality in passengers safety and ancillary services. Now, with Kaizen all will be reversed and Ryanair will be considered as the industry leader setting the industry landmarks for benchmarking. Ryanair has publicly announced that by 2014 it will enter the long haul destinations market and this will require them for a parallel strategic thinking as this segment will bring new challenges in terms of quality management. These routes are proposed to be separately managed, perhaps with most traditional form of flights and some compulsory on board services which will require Ryanair to establish new service standards. There is a scope of success in this segment if it can effectively extend and use of then well functioning Servicemail, CIS and other critical success factors such as brand, price and well established quality standards using Kaizen. Word count: Executive Summary 121 Reflection in the Report 493 Ryanair and GE Introductions 297 Ryanair v/s GE 732 Is TQM good for Ryanair 1,117 Improving Quality in Ryanair 819 Total : 3,579

Graduation Speech: Enjoy the Journey :: Graduation Speech, Commencement Address

Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Sitting in the backseat of the car, I used to bombard my family with these questions. On our summer road trips I was so anxious for the destination that I failed to appreciate the journey. However, as time passed and I grew older, I realized that it was the journey that was important and not the destination. For the past 13 years of our education we have been on a journey - a journey full of experiences, challenges and accomplishments. We have made it through elementary, middle and high school. It hasn't always been what we expected and certainly not easy, but as we progressed down the road, we stretched ourselves to reach across barriers and found ourselves in new and expanding roles. We were given the opportunity to explore our interests and discover what really excites us. We have become more independent and complete individuals. Our growth and self-discovery has placed us here tonight. Tonight we stand at a crossroad where each one of use will take a new direction in our life's journey. Walt Whitman said "Not I - not anyone else can travel that road for you. You must travel it for yourself." Where we end up isn't the most important decision, but instead it is the road we choose to take to get there. The road we take is what we will look back on and call our life. Life is a journey of everyday experiences, teaching us moment in, moment out, who we really are. It's important to remember these words "Happiness is to be found along the way, not at the end of the road, for then the journey is over and it is too late." And so we find ourselves ready and eager to move on. We take with us the strength and knowledge we've gained through our interactions, encounters, challenges and accomplishments at school and at home with parents, teachers and friends. Remember life is not a race but a journey to be enjoyed each step of the way. I leave you with these words from the mountain climber John Amatt: "Adventure isn't hanging on a rope off the sides of a mountain.

Its Time to Reform the Endangered Species Act Essay -- Argumentative

It's Time to Reform the Endangered Species Act In 1973, Congress passed the Endangered Species Act. The Act was passed in response to findings by Congress that growth and development were responsible for the extinction of species of fish, wildlife and plants. This Act was to provide programs to protect species identified as either endangered or threatened. It also mandated Federal agencies and departments to protect endangered and threatened species in their own operations, as well as work with State and local agencies to further promote conservation and protection of identified species. By the definition of the Endangered Species Act, a species covered by the legislation is either classified â€Å"Endangered† if threatened with extinction, or â€Å"Threatened† if in a state of decline that might place it on the endangered list. As of 23 March 2003, 1262 species of plants and animals were listed as endangered or threatened by the Endangered Species Act, with thirty-three species proposed for listing. To date, twenty-six species have been removed from the list, either due to recovery or the discovery of new information about their status, while seven were removed due to becoming extinct. THIRTY YEARS LATER: NEW LOOKS AT THE SUCCESS OF THE ACT There are concerns about the Endangered Species Act upon business, industry, and property owners, as well as Wildlife groups, about the effectiveness of the Act in protecting and restoring listed species. A report from the Ecological Society of America entitled â€Å"Strengthening the Use of Science in Achieving the Goals of the Endangered Species Act†, calls upon the Federal government to adopt a more-proactive approach in species preservation. They note that by the time a species... ... important. But anything worth doing is worth doing right. The Act should be reformed in a manner which will increase cooperation by all interested parties, and in doing so, help us reach the ultimate objective of the Endangered Species Act. SOURCES: Ecological Society of America, The. â€Å"Strengthening the Use of Science in Achieving the Goals of the Endangered Species Act† http://www.esa.org/publications/esarpt.htm National Endangered Species Act Reform Coalition http://www.nesarc.org/ National Wildlife Institute. â€Å"Conservation Under the Endangered Species Act: A Promise Broken† http://www.nwi.org/SpecialStudies/ESAstudy.html U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service. â€Å"Endangered Species Information† U.S. Fish http://endangered.fws.gov/wildlife.html U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service. â€Å"The Endangered Species Act of 1973† http://endangered.few.gov/esa.html It's Time to Reform the Endangered Species Act Essay -- Argumentative It's Time to Reform the Endangered Species Act In 1973, Congress passed the Endangered Species Act. The Act was passed in response to findings by Congress that growth and development were responsible for the extinction of species of fish, wildlife and plants. This Act was to provide programs to protect species identified as either endangered or threatened. It also mandated Federal agencies and departments to protect endangered and threatened species in their own operations, as well as work with State and local agencies to further promote conservation and protection of identified species. By the definition of the Endangered Species Act, a species covered by the legislation is either classified â€Å"Endangered† if threatened with extinction, or â€Å"Threatened† if in a state of decline that might place it on the endangered list. As of 23 March 2003, 1262 species of plants and animals were listed as endangered or threatened by the Endangered Species Act, with thirty-three species proposed for listing. To date, twenty-six species have been removed from the list, either due to recovery or the discovery of new information about their status, while seven were removed due to becoming extinct. THIRTY YEARS LATER: NEW LOOKS AT THE SUCCESS OF THE ACT There are concerns about the Endangered Species Act upon business, industry, and property owners, as well as Wildlife groups, about the effectiveness of the Act in protecting and restoring listed species. A report from the Ecological Society of America entitled â€Å"Strengthening the Use of Science in Achieving the Goals of the Endangered Species Act†, calls upon the Federal government to adopt a more-proactive approach in species preservation. They note that by the time a species... ... important. But anything worth doing is worth doing right. The Act should be reformed in a manner which will increase cooperation by all interested parties, and in doing so, help us reach the ultimate objective of the Endangered Species Act. SOURCES: Ecological Society of America, The. â€Å"Strengthening the Use of Science in Achieving the Goals of the Endangered Species Act† http://www.esa.org/publications/esarpt.htm National Endangered Species Act Reform Coalition http://www.nesarc.org/ National Wildlife Institute. â€Å"Conservation Under the Endangered Species Act: A Promise Broken† http://www.nwi.org/SpecialStudies/ESAstudy.html U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service. â€Å"Endangered Species Information† U.S. Fish http://endangered.fws.gov/wildlife.html U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service. â€Å"The Endangered Species Act of 1973† http://endangered.few.gov/esa.html

Philosophy Essay on Self Essay

I certify that this literature review is my own work and contains no material which has been accepted for the award of any degree or diploma in any institute, college or university. Moreover, to the best of my knowledge and belief, it contains no material previously published or written by another person, except where due reference is made in the text of the dissertation. Name Signed _________________________________________________ Date ___________________________________________________ The most fundamental of the questions man asks himself in his lifetime are, â€Å"what/who am I ? â€Å"and â€Å"what is my purpose? † The curiosity over this issue of ‘the self’ has spanned human thought for millennia rooting from societal notion that â€Å"life cannot be just bricks and cement†. Due to the inherent nature of these fundamental curiosities mankind has struggled from ancient times to uncover these mysteries. In the western-context, this brief essay will try to explore the dimensions of the â€Å"essence of self† ranging from medieval to the modern conception of self. It will review the theories of self starting with Aristotelian science and Christian doctrines and their eventual marriage by St. Thomas Acquinas’ moral theory. In effect, it then explores critical viewpoints and traces the development of Scientific Rationalization. Progressively, it debates Rene Descartes’ rationalist views shaping his dualistic conception of the self. Furthermore, it poses the contrasting empiricist views of John Locke where he places self-consciousness and memory as the variables to comprehend self. In addition, it contests David Hume’s proclamation of the self as fiction (Robinson, H. , 2012). The theories of self and identity gradually developed over a historical timeline resulting in modern thought on the subject. In this regard, it is important to understand its development initiation from religious conception in the west. Curiosity on these issues can be traced back to accounts of Aristotle, where he is of the view that everything in nature has a purpose and everything can be rationalized based on its intent and the purpose it served (Greetham, B. 2006, p. 213). This is referred to as the ‘teleological’ view, which contributed to the formation of medieval world view formed by Christian dogma and the Catholic church (Cavalier, G. ,1989). This Christian conception viewed the world as being God’s creation and expression of his will which was cosmologically meaningful and structured. The purpose of things under this theology is God given and is a part of the ‘grand plan’ (Stanford encyclopedia of philosophy). This categorises the medieval belief of self, where humans have a certain place and purpose and the self is understood in terms of the role it plays in the grand plan of things. The medieval Christian conception of self was greatly inspired by the work of 13th century theologian St. Thomas Acquinas. In his opus he bridged the gap between faith and reason by linking Christian dogma and Aristotelian thought (O’Callaghan, R. , 2010). In essence, he lived in a crucial juncture of western culture when the Latin translation of Aristotelian corpus was made available which in effect reignited the debate on relating faith and reason. His theories borrowed from Aristotle and Christian dogma and ethics which were consistently reaffirmed by the church over the centuries (auquinas from stanford). The aforementioned medieval religious conception of self forms the basis Acquinas’ ethical premise on how we ought to act (Greetham, B., 2006). Right and wrong actions based on their compliance with human nature and its place â€Å"God-given natural order†, categorized as natural or unnatural. Hence, the self bounded and confined to serving a purpose. However, this religious world-view came under intense criticism with the advent of scientific advancement and rationality in the 16th and 17th centuries. Scientific thinking developed under the likes of Descartes and Locke and was reasoned based on the accomplishments of Galileo and Newton(Zalta, E. , 2011). They disregarded the place of divine-will in their conception of self, basing it on mere experience, empirical evidence and mathematical formulations. This shift of conception is termed ‘demythologization’, where everything works without a purpose and results from mechanical interaction of particles regulated by universal laws which can be mathematically formulated (Greetham, B. , 2006). Consequently, began the search of the self by looking within for purpose and meaning. The modern view of self is articulated in the works of 17th century philosopher Rene Descartes. He pioneered the dualistic understanding of the human being, which is made up of the â€Å"mental substance (mind) and the physical substance (body)† (Warburton, N. , 1992). Here, the body has physical properties like having weight and using space, whereas the mind is a non-material substance, responsible for thought and experience and hence is the abode of consciousness. In his view, the self is a spiritual â€Å"subject of experience† which is fundamentally different from the body and nature, where the body inessential and the mind can exist independently. His radical scepticism led to the formation of the â€Å"Illusion argument†, where the bodily senses are deemed unreliable and thus the existence of the external world and body is uncertain. The only thing one can be certain of is that ‘I exist’. This is categorized under his famous proclamation -â€Å"Cogito ergo sum†, meaning â€Å"I think, therefore I am† (Cavalier, G. , 1989). In essence, â€Å"the self is essentially mental† and the search for purpose and meaning should be searched within ourselves instead of classifying it under totality of nature. In his endeavours, Descartes used the â€Å"rationalist approach† to knowledge, which solely relies on logic and scepticism . In contrast, his contemporary, English philosopher John Locke relies on the â€Å"empiricist approach†, where knowledge is acquired by the means of watchfulness and experience. His theology of self underlines the role of reason, consciousness and self-consciousness. As for Locke, he sees self-consciousness as a inseparable element in the conduct of any conscious action, like thinking and observing. The perception of the world by the senses, awareness of personal identity, actions performed and its retention (memory) over time is what constitutes self-consciousness (Robinson, H. , 2012). Personal identity here is quintessentially the self, in which memory is decisive variable as the consciousness of past actions is critical to being the same person; and selfhood is reliant on the consciousness and not the body. For instance, if a person has memories from a past life as Salvador Dali, then he is the same person in the current life with a different body. These arguments however appear ambiguous upon correlation with Descartes’ accounts. However, Locke’s accounts differ where cites that it is not necessary that thinking, observation etc. to be the products of a non-material substance and leaves a prospect open that they could be of material origin. The self, Locke argues, is resultant from â€Å"continuity of consciousness† and not a ‘substance’ as proposed by Descartes (Greetham, B. , 2006). Then again, there is a fallacy in these arguments; if the self is continuity of consciousness and memory retention then without the memory of past actions accountability for the actions is cannot be held (Cavalier, g., 1989). For instance, it could be hypothesized in Locke’s view, that a person who committed murder as a child, who grew up to become a doctor and then as an old man he cannot remember his crime as a child, hence in effect, he cannot be held responsible for the murder. Eighteenth century philosopher David Hume continued in the empirical approach, maintaining that authentic knowledge is solely acquired on the basis of direct experience (Robinson H. , 2012). He borrows from Locke, however, he reaches drastic conception where he conceives the self as fiction. Thereafter, he entirely disregards the â€Å"substance view of the mind†. He bases his conception strictly on experience or ‘perception’ and maintains that the existential claim for the inner substance should be discoverable by experience (Greetham, B. , 2006). Through his experience, Hume, found no such substance but instead only a variety of perceptions where there is no identity or self binding them. Academics refer to this view as the â€Å"bundle theory of substance†, where different perceptions are in eternal flux (Robinson H. , 2012). However, Hume fails to identify a unifying  factor and puts forth a vague understanding of the mind just being a bundle of perceptions. Consequently, the Cartesian theory of self gained an upper hand as it offers the unifying substance of mind in the conception of the self (Greetham, B. , 2006). The aforementioned theories of self significantly influence the post-modern conception of the self, as the subject has a tendency to develop over time (Cahoone, L. , 2003). These western theories have borrowed from Eastern conceptions of self, which indicates ancient interaction between the west and the east. (Cavalier, G. , 1989). In the contemporary world, the twentieth century has been the fore-bringer of brisk industrialization in the western world, begetting fast-paced consumer societies, where the people have little or no time for personal fulfilment (Cahoone, L. 2003). This along with advent of cultural pluralism, scientific rationalization and secularization of notions of religion has led to burgeoning interest in the conception of self (Olsen and Timothy, 2006, p. 139). On a personal basis, the theories of self explored here provided a clearer picture on the gradual development of understanding of self with a historical context and an insight into how these theories have shaped post-modern notions on the same (Collinson, P. et al, 2000). Descartes’ accounts and his emphasis on the soul substance worked as a bride between my eastern thought origin and modern western conception on the subject. However, Locke’s and Hume’s empirical approach and their emphasis on discovering self through experience is also profound to my conception of self. Their conclusions however appeared radical and absurd especially in the case of Hume where proclaims the self as being fictional. References: Cahoone, L. (2003). From Modernism to Postmodernism: An Anthology. Carlton: Blackwell. Cavalier, G. &. (1989). Ethics in the History of Western Philosophy. New York: St. Martin’s Press. Collinson, P. &. (2000). Fifty Eastern Tihnkers. London: Routledge. Greetham, B. (2006). Philosophy. Norwich: Palgrave Macmillan. Jamal, T. a. (2009). The Sage Handbook of Tourism Studies. London: Sage. O’Callaghan, R. et al. (2010, December 21). Saint Thomas Aquinas. Retrieved May 1, 2012, from http://plato. stanford. edu/: Olsen, D. H. and Timothy, D. J. (2006). Tourism, Religion and Spiritual Journeys. Oxford: Routledge. Robinson, H. (2012, Demember 21). Dualism. Retrieved May 1, 2012, from http://plato. stanford. edu/: Warburton, N. (1992). Philosophy. Abingdon: Routledge. Zalta, E. (2011, September 21). Aquinas’ Moral, Political, and Legal Philosophy. Retrieved May 1, 2011, from www. http://plato. stanford. edu/: .

Time Series

IntroductionA m serial publication is a squ be up of observations, xi each one macrocosm save at a specific era t. After being recorded, these entropy be rigorously studied to dumbfound a form. This gravel bequeath wherefore be apply to construct degree to come de vergeinationine, in other words, to specify a forecast. When looking at a cadence serial publication, some questions moldiness be askedDoes the outcome serial postulate a propensity or seasonal workerity?argon their outliers?Is at that place everlasting divergence totally all everyplace magazine? meaty of Good date serialThe information must be massive enough.There must be equal prison term gap.There must be a normal period.Example1The by-line patch is a epoch serial while of the annual number of earthquakes in the existence with seismic magnitude over 7.0, for 99 sequential years.By a cartridge holder serial publication eyepatch, we simply represent that the protean is dappleted against magazine.Some features of the bizThere is no manner.The mean of the serial publication is 20.2.There is no seasonality as the entropy atomic number 18 annual data.There ar no outliers.Example 2 This shows a term serial publication of quarterly payoff of beer in Australia for 18 years.Some features beThere is an adjustment magnitude leaning.There is seasonality.There be no outliers.The Components of conviction serialThe components of judgment of conviction serial publication be factors that fuel bring lurchs to the conviction serial publication consummation component, TtWhen in that respect is an change magnitude or a decrease over a long period of clipping in the data, then(prenominal) we say that on that point is a rationalize. Some prison terms, a trend is verbalise to be ever-changing direction when it goes from an change magnitude trend to a decreasing one. It is the way out of events such(prenominal) as price inflation, state growth or economic changes.Seasonal component, StA seasonal precedent exists when the clipping serial publication exhibits level(p) variations at specific condemnation. It arises from influences such as instinctive conditions or social and pagan fashions. For example, the gross sales of ice-cream are relatively high gear in summertime. So, the salesman expects greater enlighten headway in summer than in winter.Cyclic component, CtIf the time serial shows an up and down movement slightly a given period of time, it is express to wealthy person a circular pattern.Irregular component, ItIrregular components lie in of changes that are unlikely to be repeat in a time serial. Examples are floods, fires, earthquakes or cyclones.Combining the time series components fourth dimension series is a combine of the components which were dissertateed above.These components support be either suck in analoguely or multiplicatively.Additive assumeIt is additive, and t he changes are made by the similar tote up over time.Yt = Tt + Ct + St + ItMultiplicative modelIt is non- elongate such as quadratic or exponential, and the changes improver or decrease over time.Yt = Tt Ct St ItUses date series rat be social lickful in the following palmStatisticsSignal souringEconometricsMathematical financeAstronomyEarthquake foreshadowionsWeather previsionImportance of duration series for line of merchandi confabulatesThere are legion(predicate) bene adapts of time series for business purposes face-saving for study of departed demeanourBusinessmen use time series to study the late(prenominal) behaviors and to go through the trend of the sales or profit of their businesses.Helpful in forecasting cartridge clip series is a great tool for forecasting. Businesses git befool a time series of the past strategies of their competitors and correct an estimate of their prospective strategies. In this way, they cite tail assembly reinforced a rec rudesce strategy and mystify much profits.Helpful in comparisonTime series terminate be use to calculate the trend of deuce or more branches of the aforesaid(prenominal) troupe and compare their performance. On their performances, rewards chiffonier be given.However, time series give the sack have some limitations for a business. sales forecasting relies on the past results to predict succeeding(a) expectations. But, if a company is new, there is a limited amount of data to exculpate predictions. Even so, past results do non always indicate what the early sales bothow for be.To fully fancy this topic, we exit work out this example.Example 2We allow for consider the actual arrival of passengers from an airdrome over the year 1949 to 1960. From these data, we give make a forecast.The basic step is to plan the data and obtain descriptive measures such as trends or seasonal fluctuations.The heartbeat step is to breach for the stationarity of the time series.Station arityA time series is said to be un locomote if its mean and var. does not change over time. Obviously, not all the time series that we encounter are nonmoving.It is consequential because, approximately of the models we work on, enters that the time series is stationary. If the time series has the same behavior over time, there leave alone be a high probability that it impart follow the same trend in the future.How to come apart for stationarity?For the graph that was plot, we brook blockade up on out that it has an increasing trend with some seasonal pattern.But, it is not always evident to retard whether a plot is increasing or has a seasonal trend. We pile check for stationarity using the followingPlotting rolling statisticsWe plot the moving average or variance and gain whether it changes with time. But, as it is a optical technique, we get out take more stipulation for the next leaven.Dickey-Fuller running gameIt is one of the statistical methods to check f or stationarity. The null hypothesis is that the time series is non-stationary, and the alternative hypothesis is the converse.As shown below, the exam consists of the analyse statistics and circumstantial determine at diverse signifi derrieret levels. If the assay statistics is less than the over vituperative value, we reject the null hypothesis.Results of Dickey-Fuller study trial Statistic 0.815369p-value 0.991880Lags Used 13.000000 follow of Observations Used 130.000000Critical measure out (1%) -3.481682Critical value (5%) -2.884042Critical Value (10%) -2.578770According to the Dickey-Fuller riddle, the test statistics is less than the tiny value.Therefore, the time series is not stationary. However, there are various methods to make a time series stationary.How to make a time series stationary?The laying claim of stationarity is very essential when modelling a time series, scarcely just about of the realistic time series are not stationary. Eventually, we cann ot make a time series one hundred percent stationary, most of the time, it result be with a dominance of 99%.Before going into detail, we will handle on the reasons why the time series is not stationary.There are ii major reasons to that, trend and seasonality.Having discuss the reasons, we will now talk about the techniques to make the time series stationaryTransformationLog conversion is probably the most commonly employ form of vicissitude.DifferencingDifferencing is a widely apply method to make the time series stationary. It is performed by subtracting the antecedent observation from the lord one. When making the forecast, the process of differencing must be inverted to convert the data ski binding off to its accredited scale. This can be through with(p) by adding the difference value to the precedent value.Using the Dickey-Fuller test we can come up that the test statistic is -2.717131 and that the critical determine at 1%, 5% and 10% are -3.482501, -2.88439 8 and -2.578960 respectivelyThe time series is stationary with 90% bureau. The imprimatur or third hunting lodge differencing can be do to mother better results.DecompositionIn decomposition, the time series is divided into some(prenominal) components mainly trend, cyclical, seasonal and impermanent components.The time series can sometimes be broken down into an additive or multiplicative model.We will assume a multiplicative model for our example.Since the trend and seasonality were uncaring from the sleeps, we can check the stationarity of the eases.Results of Dickey-Fuller runnel is test statistic is -6.332387e+00 and the critical value at 1%, 5% and 10% are -3.485122e+00, -2.885538e+00 and -2.579569e+00 respectively.We can conclude that the time series is stationary at 99% confidence.Now, we can go forward with the forecasting.Forecasting the time seriesWe will fit this time series using the ARIMA model, ARIMA is an acronym that stands for Autoregressive corporate M oving Average. It is a one-dimensional equation similar to a linear regression.The first goal is to find the value of the predictors (p, d, q), but before finding these determine, twain situations in stationarity must be discussed.A rigorously stationary series without any colony among the value. In this study, we can model the residual as white noise.The turn baptistry is a series with significant settlement among the values.The predictors mainly depend on the parameters (p, d, q) of the ARIMA modelNumber of AR(Auto-Regressive) terms (p)It is the number of deceleration observation that were included in the model. This term helps to incorporate the effect of the past values into the model.Number of MA (Moving Average) terms (q)It is the sizing of the moving average window, that is, this term sets the misplay of the model as a linear combination of the error values sight at previous time points in the past.Number of differences(d)The number of times that the raw observat ions are differenced.In order to obtain the values of p and q, we will use the following cardinal plotsAuto coefficient of correlation coefficient Function, ACFThis duty will measure the correlation of the time series with its toss outged version.Partial Autocorrelation Function, PACFThis function measures the correlation between the time series with a lagged version of itself, controlling the values of the time series at all shorter lagsIn the ACF and PACF plots, the dotted lines are the confidence interval, these values are p and q. The value of p is obtained from the PACF plot and the value of q is obtained from the ACF plot. We can opthalmicise that both p and q are 2.Now, that we have obtained p and q, we will make cardinal contrastive ARIMA model AR, MA and the have model. The RSS of each of the model will be given.AR modelMA modelCombined modelFrom the plots, it is clearly shown that the RSS of AR and MA are the same and that of the combined is much better. As the com bined model give a better result, the following steps will take the values back to its fender scale.The predicted results are stored.The differencing is converted the log scale. This can be done by adding the differences consecutively to the base numbers.The exponent is taken and is compared to the buffer scale.Therefore, we have the final result.ReferencesAarshay Jain(2016) A well-rounded beginners guide to create a Time serial Forecast (with Codes in Python) WWW on hand(predicate) from https//www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2016/02/time-series-forecasting-codes-python/ Accessed 14/04/18Maxime Phillot (2017)How do I interpret the results in an augmented Dickey-Fuller test? WWW purchasable from https//www.quora.com/How-do-I-interpret-the-results-in-an-augmented-Dickey-Fuller-test Accessed 23/04/18Jason Brownlee (2016)What Is Time series Forecasting? WWW functional from https//machinelearningmastery.com/time-series-forecasting/ Accessed 23/04/18Chris St.Jeor and Sean Ankenbruck (2018)Time serial publication for dummies- The 3 step process WWW Available from https//www.kdnuggets.com/2018/03/time-series-dummies-3-step-process.html Accessed 22/04/18Pennsylvania state university (n. d) Overview of Time Series Characteristics WWW Available from https//onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat510/node/47 Accessed 22/04/18Time SeriesA time series is a set of observations, xi each one being recorded at a specific time t. After being recorded, these data are rigorously studied to develop a model. This model will then be used to produce future values, in other words, to make a forecast.Important Characteristics to calculate FirstWhen first looking at a time series, some questions must be askedDoes the time series has a trend or seasonality over time?Are their outliers? With time series data, the outliers are further away from the other data.Is there a long-run cycle or period?Is there constant variance over time?Essential of Good time series Data must be for a sufficien t period follow time ga Constant or normal period.Example1The following plot is a time series plot of the annual number of earthquakes in the world with seismic magnitude over 7.0, for 99 consecutive years. By a time series plot, we simply mean that the variable is plotted against time.Some features of the plotThere is no trend.The mean of the series is 20.2There is no seasonality as the data are annual data.There are no outliers.Example 2 The plot at the top of the next page shows a time series of quarterly production of beer in Australia for 18 years.Some important features areThere is an increasing trend.There is seasonality.There are no obvious outliers.The Components of Time SeriesThe components of time series are factors that can bring changes to the time seriesTrend component, TtWhen there is an increase or a decrease over a long period of time in the data, then we say that there is a trend.Sometimes, a trend is said to be changing direction when it goes from an increasing t rend to a decreasing one. It is the result of events such as price inflation, population growth or economic changes.Seasonal component, StA seasonal pattern exists when the time series exhibits regular fluctuations at specific time. It arises from influences such as natural conditions or social and cultural behaviors. For example, the sales of ice-cream are relatively high in summer.So, the salesman expects greater profit in summer than in winter. Cyclic component, CtIf the time series shows an up and down movement around a given period of time, it is said to have a cyclical pattern.Irregular component, ItIrregular components consist of changes that are unlikely to be repeated in a time series. Examples are floods, fires, earthquakes or cyclones.Combining the time series componentsTime series is a combination of the components which were discussed above.These components can be either combined additively or multiplicatively.Additive modelIt is linear, and the changes are made by the same amount over time.Yt = Tt + Ct + St + ItMultiplicative modelIt is non-linear such as quadratic or exponential, and the changes increase or decrease over time.Yt = Tt Ct St ItUsesTime series can be useful in the following fieldsStatisticsSignal processingEconometricsMathematical financeAstronomyEarthquake predictionsWeather forecastingImportance of Time series for businessesThere are many benefits of time series for business purposesHelpful for study of past behaviorBusinessmen use time series to study the past behaviors and to see the trend of the sales or profit of their businesses.Helpful in forecastingTime series is a great tool for forecasting. Businesses can make a time series of the past strategies of their competitors and make an estimate of their future strategies. In this way, they make can built a better strategy and make more profits.Helpful in comparisonTime series can be used to calculate the trend of dickens or more branches of the same company and compare their performance. On their performances, rewards can be given.However, time series can have some limitations for a business. Sales forecasting relies on the past results to predict future expectations. But, if a company is new, there is a limited amount of data to make predictions. Even so, past results do not always indicate what the future sales will be.To fully understand this topic, we will work out this example.Example 2We will consider the actual arrival of passengers from an airport over the year 1949 to 1960. From these data, we will make a forecast.The first step is to plot the data and obtain descriptive measures such as trends or seasonal fluctuations.The second step is to check for the stationarity of the time series.StationarityA time series is said to be stationary if its mean and variance does not change over time. Obviously, not all the time series that we encounter are stationary. It is important because, most of the models we work on, assumes that the time series is s tationary.If the time series has the same behavior over time, there will be a high probability that it will follow the same trend in the future.How to check for stationarity?For the graph that was plotted, we can see that it has an increasing trend with some seasonal pattern. But, it is not always evident to see whether a plot is increasing or has a seasonal trend. We can check for stationarity using the followingPlotting rolling statisticsWe plot the moving average or variance and see whether it changes with time.But, as it is a visual technique, we will take more friendship for the next test.Dickey-Fuller testIt is one of the statistical methods to check for stationarity. The null hypothesis is that the time series is non-stationary, and the alternative hypothesis is the converse.As shown below, the test consists of the test statistics and critical values at different significant levels. If the test statistics is less than the critical value, we reject the null hypothesis.Results of Dickey-Fuller Test Test Statistic 0.815369p-value 0.991880Lags Used 13.000000Number of Observations Used 130.000000Critical Value (1%) -3.481682Critical Value (5%) -2.884042Critical Value (10%) -2.578770According to the Dickey-Fuller test, the test statistics is less than the critical value. Therefore, the time series is not stationary.However, there are various methods to make a time series stationary.How to make a time series stationary?The premise of stationarity is very important when modelling a time series, but most of the pragmatical time series are not stationary. Eventually, we cannot make a time series one hundred percent stationary, most of the time, it will be with a confidence of 99%.Before going into detail, we will discuss on the reasons why the time series is not stationary.There are two major reasons to that, trend and seasonality.Having discuss the reasons, we will now talk about the techniques to make the time series stationaryTransformationLog transformatio n is probably the most commonly used form of transformation.DifferencingDifferencing is a widely used method to make the time series stationary. It is performed by subtracting the previous observation from the latest one.When making the forecast, the process of differencing must be inverted to convert the data back to its original scale. This can be done by adding the difference value to the previous value.Using the Dickey-Fuller test we can see that the test statistic is -2.717131 and that the critical values at 1%, 5% and 10% are -3.482501, -2.884398 and -2.578960 respectivelyThe time series is stationary with 90% confidence. The second or third order differencing can be done to get better results.DecompositionIn decomposition, the time series is divided into several components mainly trend, cyclical, seasonal and irregular components.The time series can sometimes be broken down into an additive or multiplicative model.We will assume a multiplicative model for our example.Since t he trend and seasonality were separated from the residuals, we can check the stationarity of the residuals.Results of Dickey-Fuller Test is test statistic is -6.332387e+00 and the critical values at 1%, 5% and 10% are -3.485122e+00, -2.885538e+00 and -2.579569e+00 respectively.We can conclude that the time series is stationary at 99% confidence.Now, we can go forward with the forecasting.Forecasting the time seriesWe will fit this time series using the ARIMA model, ARIMA is an acronym that stands for Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. It is a linear equation similar to a linear regression. The first goal is to find the values of the predictors (p, d, q), but before finding these values, two situations in stationarity must be discussed.A strictly stationary series without any dependance among the values. In this case, we can model the residual as white noise.The second case is a series with significant dependence among the values.The predictors mainly depend on the parameters (p, d, q) of the ARIMA modelNumber of AR(Auto-Regressive) terms (p)It is the number of lag observation that were included in the model. This term helps to incorporate the effect of the past values into the model.Number of MA (Moving Average) terms (q)It is the size of the moving average window, that is, this term sets the error of the model as a linear combination of the error values observed at previous time points in the past.Number of differences(d)The number of times that the raw observations are differenced.In order to obtain the values of p and q, we will use the following two plotsAutocorrelation Function, ACFThis function will measure the correlation of the time series with its lagged version.Partial Autocorrelation Function, PACFThis function measures the correlation between the time series with a lagged version of itself, controlling the values of the time series at all shorter lagsIn the ACF and PACF plots, the dotted lines are the confidence interval, these values are p and q. The value of p is obtained from the PACF plot and the value of q is obtained from the ACF plot. We can see that both p and q are 2.Now, that we have obtained p and q, we will make tether different ARIMA model AR, MA and the combined model.The RSS of each of the model will be given.AR modelMA modelCombined modelFrom the plots, it is clearly shown that the RSS of AR and MA are the same and that of the combined is much better. As the combined model give a better result, the following steps will take the values back to its original scale.The predicted results are stored.The differencing is converted the log scale. This can be done by adding the differences consecutively to the base numbers.The exponent is taken and is compared to the original scale.Therefore, we have the final result.ReferencesAarshay Jain(2016) A all-inclusive beginners guide to create a Time Series Forecast (with Codes in Python) WWW Available from https//www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2016/02/time-series-fore casting-codes-python/ Accessed 14/04/18Maxime Phillot (2017) How do I interpret the results in an augmented Dickey-Fuller test? WWW Available from https//www.quora.com/How-do-I-interpret-the-results-in-an-augmented-Dickey-Fuller-test Accessed 23/04/18Jason Brownlee (2016) What Is Time Series Forecasting? WWW Available from https//machinelearningmastery.com/time-series-forecasting/ Accessed 23/04/18Chris St.Jeor and Sean Ankenbruck (2018) Time Series for dummies- The 3 step process WWW Available from https//www.kdnuggets.com/2018/03/time-series-dummies-3-step-process.html Accessed 22/04/18Pennsylvania state university (n. d) Overview of Time Series Characteristics WWW Available from https//onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat510/node/47 Accessed 22/04/18